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Trump Administration

A new Center for American Progress (CAP) analysis estimates that if H.R. 1 were to become law, more than 1.6 million Medicaid-expansion enrollees receiving SUD treatment would become uninsured. Although these estimates reflect the House-passed bill, the Senate’s more extreme Medicaid cuts could cause even greater coverage losses and disruptions to care.

KFF developed a table that provides a summary comparison of Medicaid provisions, including details on work requirements, in the House and Senate budget reconciliation bills.

The reconciliation legislation still needs to pass the Senate, and the House and Senate will need to reconcile any outstanding differences. President Trump expects to have the reconciliation bill on his desk for signing by July 4.

The bulk of those coverage losses would come from the bill’s proposed burdensome work-reporting requirements on adults enrolled in Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act’s expansion option. Specifically, the bill would require nonpregnant, nondisabled, non-caregiver adults ages 19 to 64 to document at least 80 hours of work per month or other qualifying activities (such as job training or volunteering) in order to maintain their Medicaid coverage. Individuals unable to meet the requirement would risk losing coverage. The Senate Finance Committee text goes even further, eliminating the exemption and requiring compliance from parents with children older than age 14.

Though the bill includes an exemption for individuals with SUD from work-reporting requirements, it remains unclear how states would implement or enforce that exemption.

CAP estimates that the states with the largest coverage losses among Medicaid enrollees being treated for SUD include California (nearly 170,000), New York (nearly 166,500), Ohio (134,500), and Pennsylvania (nearly 118,000). These coverage losses reflect the size of each state’s Medicaid expansion population as well as each state’s rate of SUD treatment take-up among people with Medicaid.

Medicaid is the largest payer of behavioral health services in the United States, including for SUD treatment. According to the latest available data, Medicaid covered nearly 60 percent of all national spending on SUD treatment in 2019 — accounting for $17 billion out of the $30 billion spent across all payers.

ACA improved SUD treatment access by making SUD services one of ten essential health benefits that nearly all insurers are required to cover. The ACA also allowed states to expand Medicaid eligibility to adults with incomes up to 138 percent of the federal-poverty level, providing millions of previously uninsured low-income adults with access to life-saving SUD treatment.

Capitol hill building in the morning with colorful cloud , Washington DC.

The Trump Administration’s “Big Beautiful Bill” was passed by House Republicans on May 22 and contains significant Medicaid cuts that could leave millions of Americans without coverage as well as severely reduce access to care. The proposed bill also includes cuts to Medicare funding, new restrictions on federal loans for medical students, and provisions to create a permanent, inflation-based mechanism for annual updates to Medicare physician payments. The legislation now heads to the Senate, where it will face further debate by lawmakers.

The proposed legislation seeks to accomplish the following:

Medicaid: 

  • The bill introduces a two-year acceleration of Medicaid work requirements for able-bodied adults ages 18 to 64, which is slated to take effect no later than December 31, 2026, instead of 2029. States have the ability to implement these requirements earlier to secure quicker savings.
  • Beginning October 21, 2027, states will be mandated to determine Medicaid eligibility every six months for people in the expansion population.
  • Medicaid and CHIP federal financial participation is prohibited under the bill revisions for people who fail to verify immigration status, citizenship, or nationality in the designated “reasonable opportunity” window.
  • States will also be required to cross-check their Death Master File quarterly to confirm deceased individuals are disenrolled. Should errors occur, there will be reinstatement provisions.
  • The Social Security Act is amended to cut retroactive Medicaid coverage from three months to one month before the application date.
  • Federal Medicaid and CHIP funding is prohibited for “specific gender transition procedures” provided to people under 18 years of age.
  • Eligibility for increased federal medical assistance percentage for states that are newly expanding Medicaid will be wound down. To qualify, states must start expansion by January 1, 2026, to restrict late expansion states from receiving an elevated match rate.
  • New rules for waiving the uniform tax requirement for Medicaid provider taxes will be imposed, which tightens conditions for states to use the financial tools.

Medicare:

  • A proposed staffing mandate is halted under the bill for long-term care facilities that receive Medicaid and Medicare funds.
  • The bill promotes the use of artificial intelligence to recover and reduce improper Medicare payments.
  • A May 20 report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that the bill could cut nearly $500 billion over the next decade in Medicare funding.
  • The budget bill includes provisions to increase Medicare physician payments by an estimated 2.25% in 2026. This would be achieved by tying payments to 75% of the Medicare Economic Index. Starting in 2027, annual payments would be adjusted by 10% of the index, establishing a permanent, inflation-based update mechanism.
  • Under current law, physician pay is set to increase by just 0.25% in 2026 and 2.5% by 2035. The proposed changes would boost payments to 4.3% by 2035 instead. Physician groups, including the American Medical Association, strongly support the provision, calling it a critical step toward restoring stability after years of payment cuts.
  • The bill also adjusts the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule’s conversion factor, a key formula used to calculate final physician reimbursement. While the legislation introduces inflation-based updates, changes to the conversion factor could offset those increases and slow long-term payment growth. Physician groups have welcomed the update mechanism as a step in the right direction, though they say further reforms are needed to ensure physician payments fully reflect inflation and keep pace with rising practice costs over time.

CMS:

Outside of Congress, the Center for Medicaid Services (CMS) has also made announcements that could threaten access to healthcare:

  • On May 27, CMS announced increased federal oversight to prevent states from using federal Medicaid dollars to cover healthcare for undocumented immigrants for anything beyond emergency services, which violates federal law.
  • CMS outlined plans to increase audits of state Medicaid spending, eligibility systems, and financial controls, with recoupment of funds if misuse is found.

Please contact Emma Sharp with any questions.

Congress is making decisions that could deeply harm people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD). A proposed budget could slash Medicaid by at least $715 billion, putting essential supports and lives at risk.

These cuts aren’t just numbers on a budget document; they’re a threat to the independence, dignity, and community of those we support.

📣 Take Action Today: Call or email your U.S. Senators and Representative.

Tell them: Reject Medicaid cuts. Protect services for people with I/DD.

Your voice matters. Now more than ever, it must be heard.

Use the ANCOR Advocacy Toolbox to contact your federal officials today!

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Message from Pennsylvania Health Access Network (PHAN): 

Last night, the House Budget Committee advanced its Budget Reconciliation bill that would terminate healthcare for over half a million Pennsylvanians who get their health coverage through Medicaid and the marketplace and double health insurance premiums for many more. 

Next, the bill is scheduled for a vote in the Rules Committee on Wednesday night and a possible floor vote on Thursday.

Now is the time to take action. Please contact members of the House of Representatives this week and let them know that your organization opposes the bill. It is particularly important to contact Representatives Fitzpatrick, Bresnahan, and Mackenzie. Let us know how your conversation went by emailing Bill England.

Message from ANCOR:

A second federal judge has blocked the freeze on federal spending noticed earlier in the week through a memo from OMB.

The order directs the Trump Administration not to “pause, freeze, impede, block, cancel, or terminate defendants’ compliance with awards and obligations to provide federal financial assistance to the states, and defendants shall not impede the states’ access to such awards and obligations” until further arguments can be heard.

The order does not prevent the review of federal programs, only the freeze on federal spending during the review. The OMB memo was rescinded prior to the issuance of the order, but the judge expressed earlier in the week that he was not persuaded that withdrawing the memo removed the underlying harm.

A hearing is expected Monday on the previous restraining order issued earlier in the week. We’ll keep you posted as we learn more.

Lydia Dawson, JD
ANCOR | Vice President of Government Relations
571-932-5375